Tucker Scott ’26

Staff Writer

In October of 2020 Joe Biden was winning independent voters by 21 points, 57% to 36%. In March of 2024 Donald Trump was beating Joe Biden by 7 points, 52% to 45%. That is a net 28 point swing in favor of Donald Trump. And the reason for that isn’t any of his policies on for example Israel and Gaza or abortion. In reality, it has everything to do with the economy. According to the latest MSNBC poll 63% of swing state voters say the economy is in not so good or poor condition while 36% say it’s in good or excellent. That is why Biden is losing. If you are the incumbent president and 63% of voters think that the economy is not so good or poor, that’s the reason you are underperforming in the polls.

The weakness of the economy due to the Covid 19 pandemic is arguably one of the main reasons that Trump lost the 2020 election. Before Covid he was in an incredibly strong position with many Americans who were happy and positive about the state of the economy. Then Covid hit, the economy crashed, and we were locked in our homes for two years and understandably the opinions of the economy changed to the negative. Trump lost almost solely due to the weak state of the economy, so while analysts may believe that issues such as abortion, gun control, or even immigration decide elections, when it comes down to it, elections are decided on how much money Americans have in their pocket and their overall feelings of the economy.

And this notion that the state of the economy is the deciding factor has been true for 100+ years in American politics. Herbert Hoover lost to FDR in the 1932 election because the economy was in terrible shape due to the Great Recession. Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election because the economy was so weak. Even John McCain, who was basically a stand-in for former President George W. Bush lost to Barack Obama because the economy had crashed in 2008. Everytime Americans feel disenfranchised about the weak state of our economy, we demand a political change, and more often than not we get it. 

It’s not just American politics that applies. This holds true all across the world. Liz Truss was ousted in favor of Rishi Sunak due to economic concerns in Britain. Emmanuel Macron was almost ousted in France, Giorgia Meloni ousted Mario Draghi in Italy, Buenos Aires ousted Javier Milei in Argentina, even Xi Jinping in China and Vladimir Putin in Russia are feeling pressure from their public due to economic concerns. All over the world the biggest concern that impacts every single voter is the economy. And if you go into an election with a weak economy, chances are you are going to lose.

There is an old adage in presidential politics, presidents with good economies going into the election will be reelected. This has been a staple of not just US politics, but global politics since time immemorial. And if that’s the case, then goodnight to President Biden and hello to President Trump becoming the second president to win two non consecutive terms.