The Spire

Sean Rego ’26

Opinions Editor

This coming Saturday will mark the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Who would have predicted in 2022 that the conflict would still be ongoing and so undecided. Sure, we have seen many wars that endured far longer than expected, like the First World War, but in our fast paced era of information, it still feels odd for such a prolonged event. I’m sure that I’m not the only one who thinks this, as the media and general public have pushed Ukraine beyond their priorities. Nevertheless, I find it still important to note the disturbing second birthday of this war and perhaps to briefly discuss its future. 

As it currently stands, the combined casualties has roughly doubled since last year, with over 400,000 wounded or killed. About ¾ of this is from Russia with an estimated 120,000 killed, and the rest from Ukraine, with around 70,000 dead. This does not include the tens of thousands of civilians and hundreds of children who have died as well. More than ten million have been displaced, whether nationally or internationally, with millions more requiring humanitarian assistance. The situation, perhaps not so surprisingly, is dire. Ukraine is sinking into the abyss of decay just as much as Russia, with little clarity on how the region will recover.

Of course, the blood spilt has not been without a fight. Ukraine has battled ferociously to defend her territory, with some notable pushback against the Russian onslaught. Despite this, though, the overall Ukrainian counter offensive has been nominal. We can see these with current news from the front– Russian forces have taken strategic villages dotting Donetsk and Luhansk. Although it is not nearly enough to claim a victorious Russia and defeat Ukraine, it is not good news for the defenders, who will have to set up and hold a new defensive line. 

So what’s going to happen? How much longer will it take before some semblance of peace returns to the Slavic world? For both of those questions, I do not have a perfect answer, but I do believe both won’t be very encouraging. The fact is, statistically speaking, that Ukraine has failed to prove that she can push the Russian enemy out of her lands. Two years and hundreds of billions of dollars later, and Zelensky has little with which to impress the West (barring those first few weeks of the war). Some of the finest equipment and technology from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have been gifted to Ukraine, yet has barely afforded a few kilometers of destroyed towns. What exactly is the Ukrainian government’s plan to win? Fight indefinitely to the last man? While a heroic cause, it falls short of national survival. 

Furthermore, there is a major question about financial support. Currently, the American government has been embroiled in arguments over financial aid pertaining to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the border. Whether it is passed or not, I’m certain most Americans don’t find Ukraine to be the most important of those four issues; at the moment, the fact is that other issues are deemed more important. With the general election right around the corner, things could go completely awry for supporters of military aid if certain candidates are elected. 

Lastly, there is the consolidation of Russia. Despite the sanctions and isolation the West has mustered against Vladimir Putin’s federation, Russia has held out relatively decently. Predictions for a coup d’etat are yet to be fulfilled, and any opposition the president may have faced has been eliminated. In America’s fit of snuffling out Russian commerce, we may well have tempered the country’s resistance to outside influence. In a way, the war has hermitized the largest country on the globe. I am not saying that Russia has benefited from this war, or  is winning by any means, but certainly, I would think it fair to say that the federation is doing better than expected. 

From what I wrote, you may have accurately gathered that I still am pessimistic about the current state of the war, particularly in the likelihood of a Ukrainian victory (ie, a return to the pre-2014 borders). Before I end though, I just want to make it clear that I am not writing this to be defeatist or to belittle the valiant effort of Ukraine. I fear my last article on the subject may have been misunderstood in that facet (forgive me, if so). 

I do not agree with American isolationists who want a full withdrawal from the world stage, nor do I believe that Ukraine is somehow a more illiberal state than their attackers. Although I have various concerns about Ukrainian democracy and use of our taxpayer money, I don’t believe at all that the current Russian state is the more innocent entity. I do think Europe should foot more of the bill, and I do think we have other global (and domestic) problems we have to handle as well, though I’ll save those for future opinions. 

I suppose that I should be slightly disheartened by the fact that, as the war continues, I have mentally removed myself from thinking about the war, especially in emotional terms. Perhaps we have all put Ukraine on a back shelf in our conscience, or maybe it’s just me. When I do happen to think about the war though, I am saddened that my ancestral homelands are killing each other, without an end in sight. I am troubled that I do not know how my distant cousins are faring in their dying motherland. I am depressed that I also feel conflicted as an American as to what must be done. All of these factors though, make me yearn for some sort of peace, preferably sooner rather than a lifetime from now. 

Copy Edited by Lauren Backstrom

Featured Image Courtesy of Harvard Gazette