Ashwin Prabaharan ’26
Chief Opinions Editor
At this moment, former President Donald Trump holds a 63-point lead for the Republican Party’s nomination for President, according to DecisionDesk/TheHill’s latest poll. He also leads incumbent President Joe Biden by 2 points on average in national polls. In a head-to-head with President Biden and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, President Trump’s lead grows to 4 points, outside of the margin of error. By all indications, President Trump is going to be the Republican Party’s nominee for President, and this year’s presidential election will be one of the closest and most volatile to ever take place in American political history. But what does the Grand Old Party have in store for itself after November, when the polls are closed and their former nominee is either the 47th President or a failed candidate awaiting trial on his over 90-count criminal indictments?
Thinking of the scenarios that would come about with the election and after it, I find it prudent to analyze its potential outcomes when coming to estimate what the GOP would look like after it. The best scenario for the party would be for President Trump to beat out President Biden and capture the White House, the majority holding or expanding in the House of Representatives, and taking the majority in the Senate, giving Republicans unified control of the government. Putting the brakes to this scenario, I highlight just how poorly Republicans are positioned in the race for Congress, with them holding the Speaker’s gavel with a majority of merely 1 seat, 219 seats compared to the 218 needed to capture the majority. If the special election in New York’s 3rd congressional district was any indication of the GOP’s congressional prospects, the party is set to lose the majority, most probably because of its factious infighting, inability to govern effectively or at all, and utter lack of order and civility within its ranks. There is no unified GOP in the House. Rather, caucuses and movements dictate its internal composition, with the MAGA-Trump-aligned wing of the conference battling with moderates and textbook conservative Republicans. I predict the House Speaker’s gavel to be in the hands of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York come this January when the House convenes after the election.
The Senate does not appear to be as electorally horrendous for the GOP, with the party holding very good prospects in a number of contests, specifically in West Virginia, Montana, Ohio, and now most recently Maryland. If the Senate is captured by the Republicans without the White House or the House falling the same way, it would offer Republicans some control over the levers of government and policy in the face of a unified Democratic House and presidency. There is a high probability the GOP would hold the majority in the chamber come November, and even if they do not, the Democrats are not expected to expand their already thin majority.
These are some predictions of mine, but when discussing the future of the GOP with regard to its leadership, there is no other place to look at than the race for the White House, where the self-appointed leader of the party and the apparent nominee is seeking a rematch with his Democratic counterpart in November. If President Trump were to win the election, it would solidify concretely his grip on the GOP machine and establishment, bringing about the complete takeover of the Republican National Committee by allies and family members aligned with President Trump. As I write this, President Trump has already backed his daughter-in-law Lara Trump in her quest for chair of the RNC, a highly influential position that is charged with crafting and leading the GOP’s electoral strategies. The moderates of the party, the so-called RINOs will undoubtedly have their political careers hang in the balance, given that their seat is very much vulnerable to Trump if he were to call his base to challenge them in the primary and install a loyalist to the MAGA movement instead. Traditional conservatives will be outcasts of the party establishment they once dominated, and they will be subsumed into the Trumpian machine. Succession for the party’s leadership and even presidential nomination will be at the whim of President Trump and the wand he would rule his party machine with.
That would be if he were to win. If he were to lose to President Biden, there is no succeeding scenario that can discount the possibility of a fourth attempt by President Trump to seek the office again. Even if somehow he were to be dissuaded and relent on campaigning for the office anymore, he still would dominate the ideological makeup of the party. The MAGA movement will not die off without an electorally shattering earthquake within the Republican field, where a leader or several figures take up the mantle and bring about a new ideological movement within it, strong and potent enough to give rise to a post-MAGA movement of some sort. In terms of potential nominees, former Governor Nikki Haley would be the most sensible candidate to back for office, given her moderate stances on critical issues and the absence of heavy political, criminal, and personal baggage, unlike the current nominee. Governors Ron DeSantis, Chris Sunnunu, Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, and Senators Cruz and Scott could be considered potential contenders. The question is: Can they move and lead the party after the Trump era? I do not have an answer to this, because I believe the MAGA movement to be a lot more potent, viable, and strong than some estimate it to be. The GOP has a great deal of reflecting to do, in terms of its issue platform, tolerance, candidate quality, leadership, and future goals. I am not an unyielding optimist in any sense, but I hope to, and I think will, see a time when the GOP turns to a more tolerant and principled approach to electoral politics in the United States.
Copy Edited by Hannah Torrey
Featured Image Courtesy of USA Today
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