Tucker Scott ’26
Opinions Editor
With all the votes finally tallied in the hotly contested election between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R) for the governorship, Ciattarelli barely lost by 13 points, with the final tally being 56.5 percent for Sherrill and 43 percent for Ciattarelli. This was a shock considering that in the 2024 election between Donald Trump against Kamala Harris came within spitting distance of winning the state, just 5 points, which would nearly been unthinkable. So coming into this election, most Republicans were confident. I was not one such voter, and it turns out I was right. Ciattarelli got crushed in a devastating blow out.
However, even saying that gives credence to this weird narrative that a Republican in New Jersey ever really had a chance or that Democrats were in any way the underdog in one of the top five bluest states in America. Democrats are currently out celebrating that they won big in New Jersey and truly, for the life of me, I can’t understand why. New Jersey has nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, the legislature has been dominated by Democrats since before I was born, in 2001. The 2017 governor race went almost the exact same way, with Phil Murphy beating Kim Guadagno by 15 points. In fact, if you view the countries that each candidate won they basically remained exactly the same. The fact that Democrats even considered New Jersey in play demonstrates how nervous they are about the 2026 and 2028 elections.
There also seems to be a strange narrative that this election was somehow a rebuke to President Trump which makes no sense. As far as I am aware, beyond Trump endorsing Ciattarelli, which as the head of the Republican Party he basically had to do, Trump did not really get involved. He did a few Truth Socials nearing the election encouraging people to get out, but beyond that Trump has been busy with a lot of other things. Even if Trump somehow was involved again, it’s not like this was Pennsylvania, this is New Jersey. The likelihood that Ciattarelli was going to win was pretty low.
No, the true takeaway from this election is two-fold. First, Ciattarelli didn’t run a campaign to win. His entire campaign mainly focused on two things, being anti-green energy and immigration. That’s foolish. He should have run solely on crime and safety. If he did, maybe he would have won. That’s basically the only time Republicans win in blue areas, think Mayor Giuliani in NYC or Governor Schwarzenegger in CA. He might not have won just because of the vote difference but he certainly would have done better, it’s not like he could have done any worse.
However, even that point is ancillary to a point that Republicans have consistently learned, and forgotten, throughout every election since the era of Trump began. The simple fact is that Democratic voters are more disciplined and the Republican party is terrible when it comes to voter turnout. No matter the election, no matter how important the position, Democrats will always show up in droves to support their candidate. Republicans, especially during off year elections, do not show up in the same numbers. It’s why so many red and purple areas have Democrats in them. Because when it comes down to it, no matter the disagreements or chaos, Democrats get their stuff together and get out to vote. It’s not like Republicans can’t do that. Trump won such a decisive victory in 2024 because every Republican in America came out to vote.
Think of American politics as a pendulum, it swings back and forth but it always returns to the status quo. This election was a return to the mean. After the 2012 election, Democrats believed that Obama created a new coalition that would lead to their victory for all time. But in the 2016 election proved that wasn’t true. Now, after the 2024 election, Republicans believed that Trump had created a new coalition that would lead to their victory. Once again this election proved that was untrue. Coalitions only last for one politician. That is why it is the job of any successful politician to either build their own coalition or prevent their opponent from building a coalition. The “Trump Coalition” didn’t show up to vote, which is precisely why Ciattarelli was defeated so soundly by Sherrill.
Featured image courtesy of USA Today
Copy edited by Molly Croft ‘29
Web edited by Emily Costello ‘27
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