Tucker Scott ’26
Opinions Editor
The moment President Trump won his second term in the White House there is a question of who will run for the office in 2028. The immediate assumption would be that Vice President J.D. Vance would run. It makes sense that once a President terms out, it is often the Vice President who runs, and wins, the party’s next nomination. In fact, a staggering 22 of the mere 50 vice presidents have run for President. So while Vance hasn’t formally announced, I would be shocked if he didn’t run in 2028. If he does decide to run, he objectively has a really good chance of winning not only the nomination, but the Presidency.
The Republican Party is split into two factions; the protectionists and the expansionists. The protectionists focus on American policy inward and favor policies like tariffs, isolationism, and increased government spending to ensure as much money goes to benefitting the American people. The expansionists on the other hand are far more free market oriented, wanting more trade between nations, a strong American military, and less government spending. While there are some overlaps between the two groups, unifying them both behind one politician, and in a way that doesn’t alienate moderate voters, is quite a difficult task.
Vice President Vance walks the line between these two factions about as well as any politician not named Donald Trump could. He has incredibly good relationships with the important players of each of the factions. His politics are moderate on nearly every issue. They are appealing to independents, however, they are not so moderate as to turn away the base. On both foreign and domestic policy, Vance’s policies strike a middle ground between the two poles in a way that ensures the most people vote for him and the most legislation gets passed.
Vance is also a very eloquent and effective speaker. His childhood allows him this very rare ability to effectively communicate in ways that resonate with most Americans, while his Harvard education proves he can also communicate in high-brow terms. In this way he is able to communicate in a wholly different way. Most politicians can either speak in a high-brow, intellectual manner or in a way that most Americans can understand. Once again, Vance is in the unique position where he can truly connect with all voters and not merely hope his message is getting across.
On top of that, Vance does not come with many of the downsides that Trump has. Vance does particularly well with women, especially suburban women. That was a key demographic that Republicans lost which led to their defeats in 2018, 2020, and 2022. While Vance is not as famous as Trump, he will also benefit from being seen as Trump’s successor. Much the way Joe Biden had the patina of Barack Obama, Vance will have the patina of Trump without all the baggage being Trump comes with.
Finally, he is also helped by the fact that the Democratic Party is bleeding voters and the Republican Party is registering a diverse set of voters at record rates. In 2024, Trump made serious gains across every single demographic, and Vance is in a unique position to take advantage of the popularity of Trump’s policies without the unpopularity of Trump himself. In 2028 Vance will likely be running not against a moderate, but instead against an AOC/Zohran Mamdani type. Which means that the election won’t be about Vance, it will be about his opponent. Which is exactly the type of race you want to run if you want to win. Trump won in 2016 and 2024 because he put the focus on Democrats. Biden won in 2020 because he put the focus on Republicans.
So all in all, Vance’s chances of winning in 2028 are looking quite strong. He has all of the upsides, he can fire up the base but also be appealing to suburban and minority voters, without any of the downsides of tweeting crazy and/or offputting things every 0.7 seconds.
Now none of this is to say that Vance is in any way perfect or is guaranteed the win. He isn’t. In any election, especially in a nation so divided as this the other party has at least a 45% chance of victory. And if god forbid the economy collapses or we end up in an actual shooting war with Russia or China, it is quite possible that Vance could lose. However, assuming the election took place today, Vance would be in a fairly good position to win.
Featured image courtesy of Google Images
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