Tucker Scott ’26
Guest Writer
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump currently leads the Republican field nationally by 46 points, with 59% of the vote, over his next closest opponent Ron DeSantis who is polling with 13%. In Iowa Trump currently leads by 33 points, and in New Hampshire he has a commanding 31 point lead. In all of these polls, even Trump’s closest competitor does not break 20%. Despite all of this data, I am not yet fully convinced that Trump will inevitably be the Republican candidate.
First, it’s important to look at history. In 2020, Democrats were in the same position that Republicans are. A populist candidate, in the Democrats case Bernie Sanders, did very well and it looked like he would win the nomination. But then all the other candidates rallied around the more electable candidate which allowed Joe Biden to win the nomination. Now, obviously there are some differences. Bernie Sanders was never the President and Trump was. However, they both also were very similar and had a strong core base of supporters and had lots of media attention which helped their popularity.
The only way to take Trump down is to hit him right where it hurts. The only way DeSantis can win is if he hits both Trump and the media, and hits them hard. Republicans want someone who they feel puts their all into the fight and won’t hold back, and there is no one that exemplifies that more than Trump. And DeSantis had that feeling during COVID, which was why he had so much support, even going into the Republican primaries. Not necessarily because of his excellent policy, but because he frequently demonstrated that he was willing to fight and take on the media’s false narratives. His policy was definitely a point in his favor, but it was not what caused so much buzz around him. DeSantis’s mistake however was that he thought that he could simply release policy, do friendly interviews, and demonstrate what he has done. To be truthful, he is running a lot like Elizabeth Warren did in 2020, and that is bad news considering that Warren lost. But that’s not how you win a presidential primary in this day and age. I wish that it was, I wish that people did not treat saying something and doing a thing the same way, but unfortunately that is not the world we live in.
His last few debate performances have been very promising. He has been demonstrating that he is really the only viable candidate, and demonstrating that he has some teeth and can fight. But he is also not being so aggressive that it is off putting, like Vivek Ramaswamey. Him challenging Trump to a debate was a very smart idea, because it puts Trump on the defensive and people actually have to wonder why Trump won’t go to these debates. And I believe his debate with California’s governor Gavin Newsom, if it ever happens, will be very good for his campaign. What the DeSantis camp needs to do if they want to regain any momentum in this campaign is book interviews on harsh media channels, and then DeSantis needs to go on and wreck them. DeSantis needs to not just say, but prove that he can fight just as hard as Trump, and in fact fight better than Trump because he is focused and knows what he is talking about.
Now there is no denying Trump is the id of the Republican Party, and has been able to connect with the base in a way no politician, possibly ever, has. Now that raises the question, why does Trump still have gut reaction support? I don’t think his support is as high in the primary as it appears. Now there is no question he is the front runner but I don’t think he is leading by 40 points. It’s not because of his policy, if it were Ron DeSantis would be walking away with this race. It is because of two words, double standard. Trump is being charged with mishandling of classified documents, fair, but Hillary was not despite the information likely getting into the hands of the Russians. Trump is being charged under Rico, but Joe and Hunter biden get a sweetheart plea deal from the DOJ. Trump is bogged down for 4 years for Russian collusion, but Barack Obama can promise flexibility to the Russians after he wins if they back off. All of this blatant corruption and double standards pisses Republicans off to no end. And to be clear, it’s not that the media or the justice department is tough on Republicans, it’s that they are weak on Democrats.
Now to be absolutely clear, I am Trump light. I liked some of the things he did as president, but I would prefer a different candidate. But even I, who is Trump hesitant, with this rampant hypocrisy, I would legitimately crawl over broken class to vote for Trump. Not because Trump is the best candidate, but because he is a giant pulsating orange middle finger to his political opponents. There is nothing sweeter to the minds of many Trump voters that after all this continuous targeting for almost a decade at this point, since Trump started his political career in 2015, that he is put back in the White House. But that is not how politics should be done. Politics should not be based around revenge. It should be based around good policy and actually getting things done. Attitude is important, yes, you shouldn’t always surrender. But you can complain about the corruption of the DOJ and the Biden and the media, all perfectly fair, all you want but if you don’t get elected nothing is going to change. So Republicans have to decide, would they prefer to win and actually change things, or would they prefer to just complain and relitigate 2020 forever.
Featured image courtesy of Politico
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