Drew Butler ‘29
News Editor
With four days to go until Election Day, candidates across the country are making their final pitches to voters. So far, tens of millions of Americans have cast ballots through mail-in, absentee, and in-person early voting. Historically, in recent elections, Democrats have performed well among ballots cast prior to Election Day, while Republicans typically enjoy strong voter turnout on Election Day. With all 435 United States House of Representatives seats and 35 U.S. Senate seats up for grabs, there will be an abundance of races to watch from coast-to-coast as election night unfolds. However, three House races in the Old Dominion, Virginia, should offer early clues into which party will control the lower chamber of Congress.
Polls in Virginia close at 7:00 p.m. EST, one of the earliest closing times in the nation. Under the Commonwealth’s vote-counting system, ballots are usually counted at a relatively fast pace, which can offer insight into voter sentiment and provide early indications if Democrats are on pace to take back the House, or if Republicans are potentially capable of bucking Midterm history, where the party in power typically loses seats in Congress.
Virginia’s Second Congressional District, currently held by incumbent two-term Republican Jen Kiggans, is a perennial battleground seat. Centered in Virginia’s southeast corner, the district stretches throughout the Hampton Roads region, including the cities of Suffolk, Franklin, and Virginia Beach. Additionally, the district is home to a large active military population. Kiggans was first elected to Congress in 2022, defeating then-Democratic congresswoman Elaine Luria by roughly three points.
This year, the race will be a Kiggans-Luria rematch. According to Real Clear Politics aggregate polling of the generic ballot, Democrats currently hold around an eight-point national lead for the House. Under these conditions, it would be extremely difficult for Kiggans, in a swing district like Virginia’s Second, to hold onto her seat. For Democrats, a Luria victory would be essential in reclaiming the House, since Republicans hold a very narrow seat advantage going into the election. However, if Kiggans were to be re-elected, Democrats may be in for a very different night than was previously expected.
With a generic ballot lead, Democrats are bullish about their chances in Virginia’s First Congressional District, held by long-time incumbent Republican Rob Wittman. In 2022 and 2024, Wittman was re-elected by roughly 13 points each time. The district spans from Richmond suburbs in the west to the Peninsula region in the east, additionally encompassing the Commonwealth’s Historic Triangle of Jamestown, Williamsburg and Yorktown. Wittman is challenged by Democrat Shannon Taylor, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney.
A recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Taylor with a 47% to 46% advantage, essentially a dead heat. A Taylor victory in this reliably Republican district would spell trouble for Republicans at the national level and could signify a brewing Democratic wave across the country. A Wittman victory would be vital for Republicans to have any hopes of retaining control of the House.
While not expected to be competitive, Virginia’s Tenth Congressional district will be valuable in providing a barometer reading of suburban and college-educated voters. Incumbent Democrat Suhas Subramanyam is facing off against Republican Dave Beckwith. Located within Northern Virginia, voters elected Subramanyam to his first term in Congress in 2024, defeating his Republican challenger by roughly five points.
The district is home to Loudoun County, one of the nation’s wealthiest and highest-educated counties. The county was in the national spotlight several years ago over numerous controversies occurring within the county’s school system. In addition, Loudoun County is one of the fastest vote-counting counties in the Commonwealth and can provide indications of potential electoral trends occurring across the United States. In 2020, Joe Biden won the county by roughly 25 points. In 2024, Donald Trump lost the county by around 17 points, an eight-point shift for Republicans. Loudoun County will offer an early gauge of whether Democrats have been successful in gaining back voters who previously supported Trump.
Virginia’s House elections will give critical clues into what party will control the House for the next two years. Will Democrats secure key victories in the Commonwealth that will aid the party’s chances in gaining House control, or will the Old Dominion give the nation a political and unexpected surprise?
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-does-us-house-representatives-decide-speaker-2023-01-04/
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