Drew Butler ‘29
Staff Writer
From the redwood forests in the north to the Santa Monica Mountains in the south, California is known for its natural beauty, unforgettable sunsets, and, of course, politics. In just a few days, Californians will make their voices heard through a plethora of statewide, congressional, county, and local races as well as a variety of ballot propositions. Much attention has been given to the state’s gubernatorial election between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. Republicans have not won the governor’s seat since 2006, but will this year be different?
A recent poll conducted by the Independent Voter Project surveyed roughly 3,000 likely California voters and found Becerra with a 10-point, 48% to 38% advantage over Hilton; 11% of voters remain undecided. While this poll is a favorable sign for California Democrats, it also shows a smaller margin of victory than in the 2024 presidential election. Two years ago, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in California by roughly 20 points, 58.5% to 38.3%. According to the office of California’s Secretary of State, there are roughly 23 million registered voters in the state, consisting of 10.4 million Democrats, 5.7 million Republicans, and 7 million unaffiliated voters. Based on voter registration alone, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one in the Golden State, posing a significant challenge to Hilton’s chances in the governor’s race.
In the open primary in June, where the top two candidates advanced to the general election, Becerra garnered support from 28% of the electorate, or roughly 2.6 million votes. Hilton followed in second place with 25% of California voters, or about 2.3 million votes. More than 4.4 million primary voters, around 47% of the electorate, voted for another candidate. Becerra showed strong support in urban counties, including Los Angeles and Sacramento counties. Conversely, Hilton shored up support in Northern California, winning many rural counties and Shasta County, home to the city of Redding. Additionally, Hilton amassed victories in high-income counties that dot California’s coast, including Ventura, Orange, and San Diego counties.
A Hilton victory in November would be an electoral upset that would send political shockwaves across California and the United States. However, he faces an uphill battle that would require him to win rural Northern counties, the San Joaquin Valley, and surrounding Los Angeles counties by tremendous gains, while cutting into the margins of typical Democratic strongholds–like Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco, and Sacramento. Hilton may be polling better when compared to past Republican performances in the state in recent years. Still, the Republican would have to outperform expectations and buck history to defeat Becerra significantly.
Besides the Golden State’s high-profile gubernatorial race, this year’s elections also feature a Holy Cross connection. In California’s 10th Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Marc DeSaulnier is seeking re-election. DeSaulnier, a 1974 Holy Cross graduate who received a BA in History from the College, represents parts of Alameda and Contra Costa counties in the San Francisco Bay Area. DeSaulnier was elected first to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014, representing the state’s 11th Congressional District from 2015 to 2023, before becoming the current congressman for California’s 10th Congressional District in 2023. During the June primary, DeSaulnier won just shy of 60% of the vote; he will face Republican Jeff Frese in the general election. Many political outlets have rated the race as Solidly Democratic and expect DeSaulnier to cruise to re-election.
Californians will decide the future of their state in due time. However, one question remains: can Republicans win in the Golden State, or is the party California Dreamin’?
Copy Edited by Lily Deforge ‘28 on 10/19/26
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