The Spire

Drew Butler ‘29

Staff Writer

With the primary season concluded, all eyes are now on the November midterm elections. In just 46 days, Americans will head to the polls and cast their ballots for congressional and statewide races. All 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election. Currently, Republicans enjoy majorities in both chambers of Congress. Republicans hold a 219-seat (one Independent caucuses with the Republicans) to 214-seat majority over the Democrats in the House. Two seats at the moment are vacant. In the upper chamber of Congress, Republicans possess a 53-to-47-seat Senate majority over the Democrats (two Independents caucus with the Democrats).

Midterm elections are held at the midway point of a president’s four-year term. Holy Cross Political Science Professor Alex Hindman shares that “these staggered elections give voters a chance to weigh in every two years.” Historically, midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power, causing the president’s party to lose seats in Congress. For instance, during the 2022 midterms, which occurred during President Joe Biden’s term, Republicans gained 9 seats in the House. Likewise, during the 2018 midterms, which took place during President Donald Trump’s first term, Democrats net gained 40 seats in the House.

While the last two midterm elections have seen gains for the opposing party in the House, this trend has not occurred in the Senate. In 2022, Democrats net gained a seat with John Fetterman’s victory over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. In 2018, Republicans net gained two Senate seats, flipping four Democratic-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats flipped two Republican-held seats in Nevada and Arizona. It remains to be seen whether this trend will continue in 2026. With regard to the state of the race, Professor Hindman asserts that “as of today, the Democrats are ascendant. I think the Democrats have a strong chance of retaking the House and a smaller, but a serious chance of retaking the Senate. But it’s a long campaign until November, and events sometimes change things.”

According to Real Clear Politics, a news outlet that covers American politics and aggregates public polling for U.S. elections, Democrats currently maintain a roughly seven-point generic ballot lead for the U.S. House of Representatives. At this moment in time in 2022, Democrats enjoyed around a one-point advantage; in 2018, Democrats had about an eight-point generic ballot lead with around two months to go until Election Day. Ultimately, according to official results, in 2022, Republicans won the generic ballot by around three points, while in 2018, Democrats secured a nine-point victory.

Regarding the Senate, 10 races will most likely decide control of the upper chamber. This includes races in Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, and Alaska. Republicans are defending six of these seats, while Democrats are protecting four of these seats. In order for Democrats to win control of the Senate, they will have to flip four Republican-held seats and hold all four of their battleground seats, which they are defending. Republicans can only afford to lose three seats in order to maintain control. A 50-50 Senate still gives Republicans a majority since Vice President JD Vance would be the tie-breaking vote.

While many local and state issues undeniably shape each respective House and Senate race, Professor Hindman contends that “the economy, war in Iran and immigration” are the three most important issues concerning voters throughout the nation. According to Real Clear Politics aggregate polling of President Trump’s handling of these issues, he is experiencing 61 percent disapproval on the economy and the war in Iran and 52 percent disapproval on immigration.

However, the rise of socialism and progressivism within the United States is proving to be a top issue this year. Over the course of the past few months, Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and progressive candidates have won primaries throughout the country. Professor Hindman maintains, “I would be curious to see how many of the Progressive Democrats perform in races around the country, especially the Michigan Senate race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers…Michigan is a bit of a swing state, and if El-Sayed can pull it off there, it suggests that the progressive message is landing with more populist voters.” Time will tell which issues resonate most with the American electorate. But for now, the countdown to Election Day is on.

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Source: https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/blank-2026-senate-map