Ashwin Prabaharan ’26 & Lars Belvin-Larsson ’26
Co-Editor-in-Chief & Opinions Editor
With midterms approaching, campaigns are beginning to focus and direct their funding toward targeted advertisements to not only bolster their candidate’s image but also smear the opposition. Each campaign has specific interests, so a myriad of topics are covered nationwide. However, when looking at the issues the nation cares about most, both Republicans and Democrats are somewhat misaligned in their focus and the issues they choose to address.
First, some basics must be underlined regarding financing campaign advertisements. Undeniably, elections have become more expensive for candidates and organizations alike. The 2024 presidential election was the most expensive in our country’s history, with a cost around $5.3 billion, much of which originated from political action committees (PACs). However, much of the cost is air time and platform exposure for campaign advertisements. Campaigns have realized the usefulness of online resources, exemplified in the $1.9 billion spent in 2024 across social platforms, most of which came from Republican affiliated groups.
Notably, Republican campaigns in toss-up and lean districts have invested heavily in emphasizing the candidate’s relationship with the President or potential future endorsements. However, since the start of the Iran war in late February, spending regarding candidates’ relationship with Trump has decreased by 77.7 percent, though it remains the largest category for House primary advertisements for the GOP. Although much of the Republican base strongly supports the President, his unpopularity remains a significant hurdle, something strategists have certainly considered. Highlighting the connection with the President could be a risky strategy, and the outcome is uncertain. For example, some candidates have questioned the President’s policy agenda and expressed a desire for him to stay away from their states due to his national unpopularity.
Another long-standing frontrunner for the GOP has been immigration, something they have been reluctant to discuss leading up to the midterm elections. The majority of the country disapproves of ICE, with 60 percent saying the agency has gone too far in its operations. Regarding a matter that has historically been considered a stronghold for Republicans, the loss of voters due to the campaign promise to restrict immigration through enforcement tactics undoubtedly constitutes a political blunder. Among the opposition from Republicans is the consistently concerned Senator Susan Collins, who pleaded for Former Secretary Noem to pull ICE agents out of Maine back in January. Clearly, Republicans are wary of campaigning on immigration enforcement, much to the chagrin of the President who thinks he can do no wrong.
According to the Economist, the issue adversely affecting the nation is, unsurprisingly, the economy, with 36 percent of poll respondents indicating it as the most prominent concern. This likely stems from a stagnating economy, low job creation, affordability issues, and the widespread rise in the cost of living. Regrettably for the Republican Party, the President has largely opted to neglect this critical issue. This situation places Republicans in a predicament, as campaigning on an economic downturn risks turning into a political own-goal. Furthermore, if Republicans acknowledge the economic slowdown, they undermine the President’s assertions that the economy is thriving, thereby placing themselves in a challenging primary position against a Trump backed opponent. However, it is noteworthy that Democrats have not seized the opportunity to highlight the President’s economic shortcomings, as evidenced by polling compiled by the Cook Political Report, which claims the subject is largely omitted from ads spending. Perhaps, the economy is so bad that they cannot afford to spend money on such ads, but one can only speculate.
Democrats are enjoying historic and current electoral headwinds in their fight to take back control of Congress. However, their media strategy to connect with battleground state and district voters can prove risky and an obstacle to overcome after the primary stage. The concentration of ads centered around the issue of taxation without a clear nod towards middle-class voter struggles could render their momentum ineffective. Most primary ads placed by Democrats against one another have seen an ideological battle occurring over the issue of taxation alone, with progressives pledging to raise taxes on top earners while centrist Democrats steer clear of the issue by pivoting to the loss of income and jobs from sour trade relations, a result of the President’s multiple trade wars. James Talarico’s victory in Texas should be evidence enough that for Democrats to have any real chance in taking out Republican incumbents, they must beat them at their own game, and that does mean a nod towards the trickle-down-economics argument to which GOP voters find themselves endeared.
Democrats would also do better to highlight the issues facing agricultural producers in the Midwest and South, a demographic Democrats could capitalize on especially given the harmful tariff regime imposed on goods and services farmers rely on from foreign partners. The Cook Political Report shows that in the 36 districts most hotly contested by Democrats and the GOP, ads spending on agriculture is next to nothing, negligible in comparison to other issues such as Medicare, Trade, and Character. The average farmer is facing rising crop prices and costs, service charges, lower subsidies and financial assistance, and an increasingly difficult consumer market to serve. Democrats can regain the ground lost in the last several years in the Midwest and districts along the Mississippi River if they can highlight just some of the ways the party can produce better, more tangible results for farmers and stakeholders by increasing congressional subsidies, ending punitive tariffs which are only with reciprocal taxes, and helping open new trade avenues to other, undiscovered markets around the world.
The midterms will be a referendum on political campaign methods, at a time when artificial intelligence mixed by an ever-present desire by both parties to not only win, but to thoroughly vanquish the other, defines the political landscape. The sheer amount of money set to be spent on this cycle’s race will surely put previous years to shame, as interest groups and advocacy coalitions will bind together to fundraise incredible amounts in support of candidates to either capture or retain congressional majorities. Trend lines have only gone upward in terms of spending for campaigns, and the hyper competitive nature of this year’s environment will surely see those lines shoot up once again. Until November, it is yet to be seen if these funds and the advertisement strategies of both parties will pay off. Voters will have to make their decisions for themselves, but Democrats and Republicans are prepared for an ugly, guerrilla style war on the airwaves for the months to come.
Featured image courtesy of KALW
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