The Spire

Sean Rego ’26

Opinions Editor

I’m sure many have already noticed that we are yet again at a presidential election year. We’re only a month in, and things are only going to get crazier. I hope in the future to discuss the topic of our own elections, but for this first issue I wanted to look at some other important elections that will take place in other countries. 64 nations will be holding national elections, so I’ll only cover the ones I think are most important to discuss.

First is India, the world’s most populous democracy. For the last three election cycles, the country of 1.4 billion people has been politically dominated by Narendra Modi, leader of the Indian People’s Party and 14th Prime Minister of the Republic. PM Modi has sparked controversy throughout his premiership, particularly for his deterioration of democracy and Hindu nationalism, in a country with millions of people who practice other religions. I cannot pretend to know much about the situation, but it would be unfortunate to have a nation, with so many lives at stake, to be driven by a party with one specific interest group. That being said, India is an important ally in the containment of China, so whichever way the winds blow in India, it is unlikely the United States would break ties. Modi is adored by much of the population, which leaves little hope for the opposition candidates. This election actually will take place this week, so hopefully we will know the results by the time of the viewer’s reading.

Secondly, there is Russia. Yes, I know that the words “Russia” and “elections” don’t exactly seem to match, but as of 1991, the Russian Federation has elections, to a degree that has gone from somewhat free, to its current and borderline placement as not free. I won’t go to say that the elections are completely rigged, unlike other authoritarian regimes, though Russia certainly ranks no better than an illiberal regime-type. Polls open up in mid-March, and President Vladimir Putin will be running for yet another six-year term (which will add to his already 24 years of de facto power). His United Russia party is more than likely to win the election, with a reported 80% approval rating for Putin, despite his administration still being bogged down in Ukraine. The next biggest parties, the Communists and the Ultra-Nationalists aren’t exactly much of an improvement. Though, even though Vladimir Putin’s re-election is almost assured, the percentage by which he wins will let us know 1) how free or fair Russia’s election will be and 2) how much support Putin can garner. 

Next is the rainbow nation, South Africa, which is scheduled for May elections. Although many may not think South Africa to be the most relevant nation on the world stage, it is one of the freer and richer African states. South Africa is the regional power house, and her wellbeing is critical for that of the entire continent. Despite her power, the country is struggling from water and energy shortages, political corruption, and rising ethnic problems. Without going too deep into it, the 30 years of ANC rule have not helped South Africa’s continually worsening situation, and their re-election may well see the end of South Africa as we know it. There is some hope that the liberal Democratic Alliance may gain ground and reverse the decline, but it might actually cause a hung parliament, and thus coalition with social radicals (who interestingly support Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Zimbabwean-style land expropriation). In such a scenario, there could be massive growth in support for cessation of opposition provinces. Such a scenario, which isn’t that implausible, would be saddening for a nation that once stood as a beacon of hope and unity. 

I will end today with the United Kingdom, which is scheduled to have elections (likely) around mid-November, right after our own. The incumbent is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been leading the discombobulated Conservative Party for almost a year and a half. Polls are grim for the Tory PM, as it seems that the British public has been disappointed in the party’s confidence to choose (and keep) a leader. The Labour opposition, led by Keir Starmer, are the favored party to win in 2024. For Britain, this would mean a closer relationship with Europe, as well as a likely walk back on Conservative foreign policy. Interestingly, Reform UK, a very right-wing party has gained a lot of traction, which many suggest a potential disruption of the UK’s (largely) two party system. I personally think that whatever happens in America though, will likely also happen across the pond (ie, a Trump victory would mean a Sunak victory). We also may see a hung parliament, which would be a fun time in its own right. 

Although I could have picked or discussed many other countries, I believe these are the most important for us to watch. Honorable mentions go to Mexico and the European Union, where there might be some surprises, though I unfortunately haven’t the knowledge to share on it. However, if you take anything from this, it is to realize that we aren’t the only country electing our leaders. Our allies and enemies alike are molding their future. Maybe we can use their outcomes to determine our own.