The Spire

Jack Faggiano ’27 and Jake Ruderman ’26

Staff Writer and Sports Editor

As the 2023 MLB offseason kicks off, let’s take a look at the top players of this loaded upcoming free agent class, and predict where we think they’re headed for the 2024 campaign. 

1. Shohei Ohtani

Jack: Los Angeles Dodgers – 10 years, $520 Million

The biggest question this offseason is where will baseball’s best free agent land? The star two-way player hit 44 home runs and recorded a 3.14 ERA this past season. Despite not being able to pitch until the 2025 season due to a right elbow injury, the 2021 (and likely 2023) American League MVP is expected to agree to a contract worth over $500 million, which would be the largest in MLB history. While all thirty teams would love to have Ohtani, I think the Dodgers will be the most aggressive here, as well as the most appealing for the former Angel. After the Dodgers once again collapsed in the playoffs, they would be adding yet another exceptional hitter to their dominant lineup that already includes two former MVPs in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani would be giving himself a chance to win every single year, as the Dodgers seem to always be in contention.

Jake: Los Angeles Dodgers – 10 years, $550 million

Without a doubt the consensus number one free agent is Shohei Ohtani, who is somehow going to hit the free agent market as a 29 year-old mega-superstar and worldwide phenom. After putting together some of the most impressive statistical seasons baseball has ever seen, Ohtani will look to play games that actually matter in 2024, likely for a perennial contender who’s not afraid to shell out the big bucks. It’s been reported for years that although Ohtani will consider all offers, he seems to have a preference to remain on the West Coast, and to think any team except the Los Angeles Dodgers would end up signing Ohtani would be cute – the Dodgers simply make the most sense for all involved, as they are a  perennially high-spending contender in a premiere West Coast city, who have shelled out mega-deals for superstars in recent history. For Ohtani to sign anywhere else would be a shock; it’s up to the Dodgers now to hammer out the specifics of the deal, and to make sure the potential greatest player of all time isn’t swayed by big, East Coast pocketbooks.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Jack: Boston Red Sox – 7 years, $210 million 

Despite never playing in an MLB game, Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is expected to command a lot of attention this offseason. In the NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), the 25-year old is coming off a season in which he recorded an amazing 1.21 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes. This past year, he also earned his third consecutive Elji Sawamura award, which is Japan’s Cy Young equivalent. Scouts say that Yamamoto is capable of being an ace for any club right away. Because of his age, there will absolutely be a bidding war amongst many teams. While clubs such as the Mets, Giants, and Yankees have shown a lot of interest, the Red Sox should try to outbid them for a generational pitching talent they could desperately use. Boston recorded a 4.52 team ERA in 2023 (21st in the league) and a 1.34 WHIP (20th). Their starting pitching struggled significantly and dealt with serious injuries all year. The Red Sox’ new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, claimed the team will be looking to add a “bonafide starter or two.” The Sox showed in 2023 that they have one of the best offenses in the league–elite starting pitching could be all Boston needs to put them back into contention for the next several years.

Jake: New York Mets – 8 years, $232 million

Aside from the obvious prize in Ohtani, the free agent market’s other game-changer is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Japanese phenom pitcher who’s being posted by the Orix Buffaloes this week, just as he turns 25 years old. Yamamoto has quite literally accomplished everything possible in Japan’s highest baseball league. The winner of three straight Cy Youngs, Yamamoto has done the unthinkable, winning the league’s Cy Young, MVP, and pitching Triple Crown in back to back seasons! While it’s never a given that a player’s game will translate to another league, all signs point to Yamamoto continuing to dominate like the stud he is. Early rumors are heavy around both New York teams, with the Mets looking to sign the top-rated Japanese pitcher in back to back off seasons (on the heels of Kodai Senga’s phenomenal rookie year), and the Yankees looking to build on their own success with Japanese pitchers, after they signed Masahiro Tanaka back in 2014. With two of the richest teams in baseball going after Yamamoto, it’s a given that his price will be driven way up, and although it’s not guaranteed he ends up in New York, it certainly seems that’s where he’s headed. For what it’s worth, the agent Yamamoto chose to be represented by is the same agent who currently represents Mets all-star closer Edwin Diaz and the aforementioned Kodai Senga – who knows, could it be a sign of things to come?

3. Blake Snell

Jack: Philadelphia Phillies – 7 years, $168 million

With Aaron Nola receiving interest from other teams, Blake Snell would certainly be a massive upgrade for the Phillies, who were just one win away from their second consecutive World Series appearance. This past year, Snell recorded a 2.25 ERA (1st in MLB) and threw 234 strikeouts (tied 3rd in MLB) in 180 innings for San Diego. He is the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award. With the Padres looking to cut down their payroll after their team underperformed in 2023, resigning Snell seems unlikely. For the Phillies, Snell would bolster their starting rotation and keep Philadelphia in contention. Investing in Snell would bring the Phillies a dominant leftie who has shown he can perform at a high level when it matters most.

Jake: New York Yankees – 6 years, $174 million

Aside from the sparkling potential of Yamamoto, Blake Snell is this free agent class’ premier pitcher, currently sitting as the odds-on favorite to win last season’s Cy Young, on the heels of his best campaign in five years. Snell went 14-9 across 32 starts, leading the league with his dazzling 2.25 ERA and striking out an absurd 234 players across 180 IP. Basically, Snell did what Snell does best – put up dominant, but weird, baseball stats. Despite leading the league in ERA, Snell also led the league in walks allowed, with nearly 100 walks in 180 IP to the tune of 5 BB/9! Even though Snell couldn’t keep runners off the basepaths, he also was a machine at preventing them from scoring. And, he punched out 234 players, accruing the second-highest K/9 in the league at a whopping 11.7! Aside from his stats, Snell is in a weird spot team-wise due to the enigma that is the San Diego Padres. Despite a roster chock full of talent, the Padres were a massive disappointment this past year, and have now pivoted to moving on from their manager and actively shopping Juan Soto. It makes almost no sense for Snell to return to San Diego with them in that state, so where will he go? It’ll likely be a team with a strong bullpen, as Snell averaged less than 6 IP per start. Although they’re not the free agency powerhouse they once were, the New York Yankees still hold some serious sway over the market and are seemingly without any of the other marquee free agents we’ve discussed. I’ve got the Yankees swooping in to sign Snell, in hopes he can make up for the tremendous blunder that was Carlos Rodón. 

4. Cody Bellinger

Jack: Chicago Cubs – 6 years, $180 million 

After struggling in 2021 and 2022, Cody Bellinger’s strong 2023 campaign with the Cubs has made him one of the more highly coveted free agents of this class. The 2019 National League MVP hit .307 with 97 RBIs, nearly leading the Cubs to their first playoff appearance since 2018. Chicago is expected to be one of the more aggressive teams in free agency this year. With a reported interest in Shohei Ohtani and other big-name free agents, the Cubs are sending a message to the rest of the league that they want to be a World Series contender as soon as possible. That being said, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs would let their best hitter walk if they want to come anywhere close to winning a title.

Jake: Chicago Cubs – 5 years, $150 million

When Cody Bellinger signed a one year deal with the Cubs last offseason, his career was at an absolute crossroads; at the time, Bellinger was coming off of back to back abysmal seasons, and was let go by the Dodgers, who had lost faith in the one-time MVP. Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs was a prove-it deal by every meaning of the term, and prove it he did. On a brand new team, in a brand new city, Bellinger absolutely raked this year, slashing an impressive .307/.356/.525 for an elite .881 OPS on a frisky Cubs team. At the deadline, it seemed that Bellinger was poised to be traded to a contender for a nice haul in return, but the Cubs shocked the world and held steady to their newfound slugger. Chicago’s unwillingness to trade Bellinger signaled his involvement in their long term vision, and unless the Cubs skimp out on his deal, it makes sense for him to return.

5. Josh Hader

Jack: Seattle Mariners – 5 years, $90 million

After recording 33 saves for the Padres last season with a 1.28 ERA, Hader re-established himself as one of the game’s best closers. The Mariners will be looking to build upon a spectacular ending to their 2023 season, in which they almost made the playoffs after seeming to be way out of contention in late July. At the deadline, Seattle moved on from beloved closer Paul Sewald. This was a questionable move at the time and an even more puzzling decision looking back after the season. Despite Andres Munoz’s solid performance as closer at the end of the season, the Mariners will be looking to compete with Houston and Texas for the division over the next couple years, and Hader could be the guy that brings them over that hump. 

Jake: Arizona Diamondbacks – 5 years, $80 million

While Hader will most certainly be expecting a lucrative deal from a premier team this offseason, he’s not quite the same guarantee he once was. In Milwaukee, Hader was a perennial top-three closer in the league, helming an utterly dominant Milwaukee bullpen and earning four all-star appearances across his six year tenure. But his trade to San Diego seemed to shake up his mechanics, resulting in an abysmal 7.31 ERA across 19 appearances for the Padres in 2022. But Hader bounced back, pitching to the tune of a 1.28 ERA across 61 appearances this past season, while garnering 33 saves and 85 Ks in only 56.1 IP. With Hader set to turn 30 this season, he’s somewhat of a wildcard, although I think his pedigree will earn him a serious contract despite his jarring 2022 struggles. With San Diego seemingly headed in the wrong direction, it makes sense that Hader will try to join a contender. Perhaps a young, up-and-coming team that could use a veteran arm in the pen, like the Arizona Diamondbacks, could be the landing spot Hader’s looking for. 

6. Jordan Montgomery

Jack: Boston Red Sox – 5 years, $120 million

Jordan Montgomery was phenomenal for the Rangers after the Cardinals dealt him right before the deadline. After landing in Texas, Montgomery recorded a 2.79 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 11 games. Ever since the Yankees gave up on him in 2022, Montgomery has been pitching with a chip on his shoulder. This postseason, in which he helped the Rangers to their first World Series win in franchise history, Montgomery came up big. He was 3-1, including two games in which he pitched over six innings without allowing a hit. He shut down the powerhouse offenses in the league, including the Orioles (101 wins in 2023), the Rays (99 wins in 2023), and the Astros (made the ALCS each of the last seven years). The Rangers would love to have the leftie back, but he’s going to command a lot of attention from other clubs. Don’t be surprised if the Red Sox, who are looking to spend big money on starting pitching, are prepared to outbid teams for the proven playoff star. 

Jake: Texas Rangers – 4 years, $92 million

After being moved at both of the past two trade deadlines, Jordan Montgomery finally seemed to settle down in Texas, pitching spectacularly throughout their World Series-winning playoff run. Up until Montgomery was traded to Texas this past deadline, he was nothing more than an average, or slightly above average starter: with both the Yankees and Cardinals, Montgomery consistently posted seasons with an ERA in the mid 3s, and between 175 and 200 IP – nothing to scoff at, but by no means an elite player. But that warm Texas air seemed to flip a switch inside him, fueling an elite 2.79 ERA across 11 starts to end the regular season, and an absurd 3-1 playoff record with a 2.90 ERA, including 7 shutout innings to open up both the wildcard round and the ALCS. In a World Series season for the Rangers which saw them lose both Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer to injuries, Jordan Montgomery stepped up and helmed Texas’ rotation, playing the best baseball of his life at the most opportune time. Look for Montgomery to get paid this offseason, most likely by Texas, who will look to retain him after losing deGrom to Tommy John for the entire upcoming year.